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Published 10:24 18 Oct 2015 BST
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"Like Roy Hodgson says maybe it is 50-50 because it is possible, but it is dependable on the rehabilitation and you can not say it now that he is going," Van Gaal said.
“He is every day here, he has started his rehabilitation already but he has a long way to go. Now his progress is going quickly but at the end we know it will level off and at that point it is difficult to maintain your mentality.
Shaw was almost immediately ruled out of next summer's tournament after the leg break but the England man will surely still need to play at least a month of Premier League football to prove his fitness.
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