ESPN Luck index reveals ‘luckiest’ and ‘unluckiest’ Premier League teams

Manchester United were identified as the luckiest team and should have had six fewer points than they did according to the index, leading to a fourth-place finish instead of second, while Liverpool Liverpool should have been 12 points better off than their final league total of 75 points.

"The ESPN Luck Index powered by Intel analysed more than 150 incidents throughout the season, and used data ranging from recent form and team strength to game state and home advantage," said University of Bath assistant professor Thomas Curran. "Then we simulated each game thousands of times to model how it should have turned out - it is one of the most detailed pieces of research we have ever conducted."

'Luck Index' simulated table 2017-18