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Published 16:04 10 Jan 2017 GMT
Updated 09:21 11 Jan 2017 GMT
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Beat Glasgow in Scotstoun and Munster are pretty much there, barring Glasgow getting try-scoring bonus points in defeat [round five] and victory over Leicester [round six].
Munster sit on 16 points and face a Warriors team buoyed by their double victory over Racing 92 in December. Rassie Erasmus' side have won 11 from 12 games [including Maori All Blacks] since October and can secure a place in the quarters by beating the Scots by a point and keeping their try-count down.
After that, an already eliminated Racing head to Thomond Park and Munster will be targeting bonus point victories to ensure a home quarter final. Even if Munster lose, a bonus point win over Racing is likely to put them through.
Leinster
Leo Cullen's side look well set in Pool 4, on 16 points, and will definitely reach the quarter finals by defeating nearest rivals Montpellier at the RDS on Friday night.
Leinster have Castres away in the final round so they will be eager to get the job done against a Montpellier side currently third in the Top 14. Leinster will be realistically targeting finishing the pool with 24 or 25 points, which would be enough to secure a home QF. Most likely, that would be in the Aviva Stadium.
Connacht
Zebre are up next for Pat Lam's side, on Saturday afternoon, and getting bonus point win is definitely the priority. Lam will correctly urge his players to secure the win first but getting the full five points from the hapless Italians would leave Connacht on 18 points going into the final game.
Connacht must assume that Wasps [Toulouse at home and Zebre away] will win their final two games so getting something out of that Toulouse game could prove decisive.
The westerners beat the French outfit at the Stade Ernest Wallon in 2013 and replicating that would see them top the pool but still unlikely to get a home quarter final. Even if Connacht were to fall in France, securing a losing bonus point could see them pip Toulouse to second.
Ulster
Les Kiss' men are in Exeter for the last fixture of this weekend's rugby action. By then, their fate may be somewhat clearer. Clermont look to have Pool 5 in the bag so Ulster would be forgiven for wanting them to do a number on Bordeaux.
First up though is getting that win over Exeter [third in the Aviva Premiership] at Sandy Park. Ulster are currently on 9 points but Exeter are further adrift and even unlikely to reach the knock-out stages with two handsome wins. Ulster's electric win over Clermont, last month, has given them hope.
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